by Vincent Muthee
Bitcoin officially crossed above the psychological $100,000 level yesterday as the crypto market graced yet another volatile day. The surge also sparked an altcoin rally with Ethereum also climbing to $2,300. But, this surge signals a new phase for Bitcoin and the crypto market.
According to CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin market which was dominated by retail traders, miners, and early whales is now shifting. Ki Young Ju argues that the market is now shaped by institutional forces. Two months ago, he had argued that the Bitcoin bull run was over but the recent surge defied his analysis signaling a transition in BTC’s cycles.
It’s Time to Throw Out the Old BTC Cycle Theory; CryptoQuant CEO Says
As the price of Bitcoin faced extreme volatility amidst trade tariff wars between the U.S and other economic giants, several experts predicted that the bull run was over. Notably, Ki Young Ju stated; “Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
According to Ki, every on-chain metric signaled a bear market. BTC’s PnL Index Cyclical Signals (an index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points) showed an incoming inflection from the rising price of BTC.
But, Bitcoin defied the analysis over the last 24 hours. BTC surged to $104,000 before rebounding to $103,865 as of this writing, per the daily chart on TradingView.
Following the impressive rally by BTC, Ki has pointed out a change in the market structure of Bitcoin. The cycles which were predictable and associated with miners, old whales and retail investors are now influenced by institutional players.
“In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other. When retail liquidity dried up and old whales started cashing out, it was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak,” Ki wrote on X.
But, the market – which he compared to a game of Musical Chairs – has now changed. The market is now driven by institutional players like MicroStrategy, ETFs and even government agencies. According to Ki, “it’s time to throw out that [old] cycle theory.”
Whale Behavior no Longer Define BTC Cycles
Bitcoin cycles have previously been influenced by whale behavior. As whales cashed out when the price of BTC peaked, this created massive sell-offs leading to a dip in price. But now, the market is driven by institutional players.
“The Bitcoin market has become much more diverse. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even govt agencies are considering buying and selling Bitcoin,” Ki wrote. Because of this, whale behavior no longer defines cycles.
As per Ki, these institutional players make new liquidity sources and volume uncertain as Bitcoin merges with traditional finance (TradFi). This has taken the power out of the hands of whales.
“Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs,” Ki remarked.
Investors Must Adopt a Cautious Outlook
The recent surge in the price of Bitcoin resulted in massive liquidations. As per the liquidation data by Coinglass, $967 million worth of positions were liquidated from the crypto market over the last 24 hours as BTC surged to $100K. Out of these $835.99 million short positions were liquidated. This makes it the largest liquidation since 2021.
However, the liquidations could be even more. “Binance has not fully disclosed its liquidation data, and the actual data is more,” Coinglass shared. The huge liquidations reflect the broader unpredictability of Bitcoin and the crypto market.
But despite the upward momentum, Ki remains cautious in his outlook. He argues that the market is adjusting to fresh liquidity inflows and is not fully bullish.
“Honestly, I still think the market is sluggish while absorbing new liquidity. Most indicators are hanging around the borderline. It doesn’t feel like a clear bullish or bearish market right now.”
Ki also conceded that he was wrong in his prediction but that doesn’t mean that on-chain data is useless. Rather investors must now adapt to the complex institutional driven market.
#blockchain #crypto, #decentralized, #distributed, #ledger
